The federal investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 1990s immigration and naturalization records remains the central driver of trader pricing. Agents raided her Washington residence in mid-October 2026, seizing documents, devices, and a passport while examining possible birth-date discrepancies on her father’s filings and related fraud claims; no denaturalization suit or removal order has been filed as of mid-November. Denaturalization requires a civil court proceeding proving material misrepresentation by clear and convincing evidence, followed by separate deportation proceedings—an extended process with no precedent against a sitting member of Congress. Omar won re-election on November 3, and administration statements have highlighted enforcement priorities without producing a filed case. Traders therefore assign low probabilities to deportation by December 31, 2026, or even June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of formal legal steps and the multi-stage judicial timeline required.