Recent mild temperatures across much of the U.S. have weighed on near-term natural gas demand, contributing to Henry Hub futures settling near $2.60–$2.95 per MMBtu during the week of October 26, with the November contract expiring at $2.82. Ample storage inventories—projected near 3,850 Bcf by month-end, above the five-year average—combined with record domestic production around 112 Bcf per day have capped upward pressure despite record LNG export flows exceeding 19 Bcf per day. Traders are monitoring NOAA forecasts for continued above-normal warmth into early November and the start of the heating season, where any shift toward colder conditions could tighten balances and support prices. Elevated inventories and export strength remain key swing factors into winter.
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