Recent polling shows Missouri Amendment 3, the legislatively referred constitutional measure on the November 3, 2026 ballot that would repeal the 2024 reproductive freedom amendment, reinstate broad abortion restrictions with narrow exceptions, and embed a permanent ban on gender transition procedures for minors, trailing or tied in voter surveys. An August SLU/YouGov poll of likely voters found 43% support and 44% opposition, with 13% undecided. Historical patterns for ballot questions indicate support often erodes as election day approaches and undecided voters break against new restrictions. The measure combines abortion policy shifts with gender-affirming care limits already in statute, and opponents have highlighted the repeal of voter-approved rights as a central campaign theme. These dynamics underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 76.5% probability assigned to the measure failing.