David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCrowley 0.4–0.6% 98.6%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,125 ปริมาณ
$213,125 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 98.6%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,125 ปริมาณ
$213,125 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
Hong 1%+
$319 ปริมาณ
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 ปริมาณ
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 ปริมาณ
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 ปริมาณ
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 ปริมาณ
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$37,514 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$41,432 ปริมาณ
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$38,963 ปริมาณ
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$29,982 ปริมาณ
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$26,575 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$30,077 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,194 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,140 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,181 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,261 ปริมาณ
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 ปริมาณ
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213,125วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213,125วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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