Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with averages near 17-18% across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys conducted in July and August. The closely contested market reflects this narrow band, where the party trails or ties the CDU and Linke amid competition from multiple established parties in the capital's mixed eastern and western voter base. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, as Berlin's electorate shows greater fragmentation and lower support for the party than in eastern states holding simultaneous votes. Traders weigh the risk of late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or spillover from the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt contest against the stabilizing effect of consistent mid-teens readings in the most recent Berlin-specific data. A surge in AfD mobilization or unexpected weakness among centrist or left-leaning parties could push results above the threshold, while steady coalition-focused campaigning by rivals or higher participation among non-AfD voters could anchor the outcome below it.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBerlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?
Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?
Over
48% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
Over
48% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with averages near 17-18% across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys conducted in July and August. The closely contested market reflects this narrow band, where the party trails or ties the CDU and Linke amid competition from multiple established parties in the capital's mixed eastern and western voter base. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, as Berlin's electorate shows greater fragmentation and lower support for the party than in eastern states holding simultaneous votes. Traders weigh the risk of late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or spillover from the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt contest against the stabilizing effect of consistent mid-teens readings in the most recent Berlin-specific data. A surge in AfD mobilization or unexpected weakness among centrist or left-leaning parties could push results above the threshold, while steady coalition-focused campaigning by rivals or higher participation among non-AfD voters could anchor the outcome below it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$3,785Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with averages near 17-18% across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys conducted in July and August. The closely contested market reflects this narrow band, where the party trails or ties the CDU and Linke amid competition from multiple established parties in the capital's mixed eastern and western voter base. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, as Berlin's electorate shows greater fragmentation and lower support for the party than in eastern states holding simultaneous votes. Traders weigh the risk of late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or spillover from the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt contest against the stabilizing effect of consistent mid-teens readings in the most recent Berlin-specific data. A surge in AfD mobilization or unexpected weakness among centrist or left-leaning parties could push results above the threshold, while steady coalition-focused campaigning by rivals or higher participation among non-AfD voters could anchor the outcome below it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$3,785Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with averages near 17-18% across INSA, Forsa, and Infratest dimap surveys conducted in July and August. The closely contested market reflects this narrow band, where the party trails or ties the CDU and Linke amid competition from multiple established parties in the capital's mixed eastern and western voter base. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, as Berlin's electorate shows greater fragmentation and lower support for the party than in eastern states holding simultaneous votes. Traders weigh the risk of late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or spillover from the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt contest against the stabilizing effect of consistent mid-teens readings in the most recent Berlin-specific data. A surge in AfD mobilization or unexpected weakness among centrist or left-leaning parties could push results above the threshold, while steady coalition-focused campaigning by rivals or higher participation among non-AfD voters could anchor the outcome below it.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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