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icon for Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
Mundo·Berlin

Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

icon for Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
Mundo·Berlin

Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

Linke 0-2% 32%

Linke 2-5% 31%

CDU 0-2% 18%

CDU 2-5% 15%

Polymarket
BAGO

Linke 0-2% 32%

Linke 2-5% 31%

CDU 0-2% 18%

CDU 2-5% 15%

Polymarket
BAGO

Linke 0-2%

$20 Vol.

32%

Linke 2-5%

$259 Vol.

31%

Linke 5-10%

$23 Vol.

13%

Linke 10%+

$95 Vol.

4%

CDU 0-2%

$0 Vol.

18%

CDU 2-5%

$0 Vol.

15%

CDU 5-10%

$0 Vol.

8%

CDU 10%+

$45 Vol.

2%

AfD 0-2%

$0 Vol.

2%

AfD 2-5%

$0 Vol.

2%

AfD 5%+

$0 Vol.

2%

Another party wins

$65 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$507
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$507
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Kaugnay

icon for Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?

Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?

60%
icon for Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?

Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?

47%
icon for Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

52%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 12 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Linke 0-2%" sa 32%, sinusundan ng "Linke 2-5%" sa 31%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 32¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 32% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 15, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory," i-browse ang 12 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" ay "Linke 0-2%" sa 32%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 32% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Linke 2-5%" sa 31%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.