Lula holds a modest edge in Amazonas polling for the October 25 runoff, yet the contest remains competitive due to regional divides between the capital Manaus, where Flávio Bolsonaro shows stronger support, and the interior, where Lula maintains a clearer lead. Recent state surveys, including Quaest and Ipen fieldwork from September, placed Lula ahead in simulated second-round matchups by margins inside or near the margin of error, reflecting stable voter intentions among decided respondents. National campaign momentum, turnout patterns among Amazonian voters, and any late shifts in undecided or blank-ballot shares could still narrow or widen the gap before election day. Trader pricing reflects this balance of localized advantages against broader uncertainty in the runoff environment.