**Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for a coup-plot conviction that became final in 2025, currently under Supreme Court-ordered house arrest on humanitarian health grounds rather than full prison.** Recent STF rulings, including the First Panel’s October 7 rejection of habeas corpus and related appeals seeking immediate release, have reinforced enforcement of the penalty despite procedural challenges over evidence. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has signaled he will address further review or potential injunctive relief only after the October 25 presidential runoff, where Bolsonaro’s son Flávio faces Lula. Any amnesty, pardon, or conviction annulment would require congressional action or full-court review and could not take effect before early 2027 even under favorable electoral outcomes. These procedural and institutional hurdles, combined with the short window to March 2027, underpin traders’ 59.5% probability on “No.”