Recent congressional elections strengthened Brazil’s conservative Liberal Party bloc, positioning it as the largest force in both chambers and increasing prospects for amnesty legislation covering Jair Bolsonaro’s coup-plot conviction. Flávio Bolsonaro, leading in the October 25 runoff against Lula, has pledged an indulto or congressional amnesty upon taking office in January 2027, while Supreme Court Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has signaled plans to advance a defense review of the 27-year sentence shortly after the runoff. These factors—combined with the incoming legislature’s early agenda priorities and the president’s constitutional pardon authority—underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes price ahead of the March 2027 resolution window.