Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader support to finish first in Santa Catarina during the October 25 runoff, reflecting his dominant first-round performance there and the state’s consistent conservative tilt. In the October 4 opening round, he captured roughly two-thirds of valid votes in Santa Catarina while Lula trailed far behind, consistent with pre-election surveys showing 50-62 percent support for Bolsonaro in the state versus 23-30 percent for the incumbent. Regional patterns favor right-wing candidates in the South, amplified by family ties including Carlos Bolsonaro’s Senate victory in the state and broader Liberal Party strength among evangelical and higher-income voters. With other first-round contenders eliminated, their supporters are expected to consolidate behind Bolsonaro, leaving limited pathways for Lula to close the gap before runoff voting concludes.