Statistics Canada's March 18, 2026, release confirmed Canada's first recorded annual population decline since Confederation, with a 0.2% drop of 103,504 people to 41,472,081 by January 1, 2026, primarily from reduced non-permanent residents amid federal immigration curbs. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, announced November 2025, caps new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000—down sharply from prior peaks—while permanent resident targets stabilize at 380,000 annually. Negative natural increase, as births trailed deaths, compounded the quarterly dips seen since late 2025. Traders price a 61% implied probability of year-end population below Q4 2025 levels, reflecting policy-driven slowdowns, though future quarterly estimates or adjustments could shift dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Statistics Canada's March 18, 2026, release confirmed Canada's first recorded annual population decline since Confederation, with a 0.2% drop of 103,504 people to 41,472,081 by January 1, 2026, primarily from reduced non-permanent residents amid federal immigration curbs. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, announced November 2025, caps new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000—down sharply from prior peaks—while permanent resident targets stabilize at 380,000 annually. Negative natural increase, as births trailed deaths, compounded the quarterly dips seen since late 2025. Traders price a 61% implied probability of year-end population below Q4 2025 levels, reflecting policy-driven slowdowns, though future quarterly estimates or adjustments could shift dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong