Traders assign a 99.4% probability to “No” because extensive Epstein file releases through early 2026 yielded only longstanding allegations, unverified FBI memos, and third-party claims rather than definitive confirmation from the U.S. or Israeli governments. Netanyahu has publicly rejected Mossad ties, and no new primary-source evidence has surfaced in the months since those disclosures. With just twelve days remaining until the June 30 resolution cutoff, the window for an unanticipated official statement or document dump is extremely narrow. The only realistic paths to a “Yes” outcome would involve a sudden executive or intelligence agency release, or an unforeseen court filing that meets the market’s strict criteria for definitive proof—developments that have not materialized despite prior document dumps.