Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed in January 2025 to complete Marco Rubio’s term. She secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80 percent in the August primary and benefits from President Trump’s endorsement, substantial cash reserves, and Florida’s Republican voter registration edge. Recent polls from late October show Moody ahead by 4 to 8 points in a Likely Republican race. Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee, has gained some ground among independents and through third-quarter fundraising but trails significantly. Late shifts in turnout, unexpected developments in the final week before the November 3 vote, or polling inaccuracies remain the main factors that could narrow Moody’s advantage.