Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s candidacy in the October 8 by-election has lifted expectations for the party’s performance in Holborn and St Pancras after it placed second in several Camden wards during the May 2026 local elections. Labour’s selection of council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the absence of a high-profile independent challenger from 2024 create a contest shaped by local issues such as housing, energy costs, and foreign policy. By-election turnout patterns and protest voting dynamics have narrowed the range of plausible Green shares, with recent ward results and demographic projections clustering around the low-to-mid 20s. Traders see limited separation until further campaigning clarifies whether Green support consolidates above 30 percent or fragments below 25 percent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update<20% 27%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 19%
30-35% 17%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
27%
20-25%
21%
25-30%
19%
30-35%
17%
35-40%
15%
40%+
12%
<20% 27%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 19%
30-35% 17%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$19 Vol.
27%
20-25%
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30%
$39 Vol.
19%
30-35%
$58 Vol.
17%
35-40%
$19 Vol.
15%
40%+
$39 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s candidacy in the October 8 by-election has lifted expectations for the party’s performance in Holborn and St Pancras after it placed second in several Camden wards during the May 2026 local elections. Labour’s selection of council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the absence of a high-profile independent challenger from 2024 create a contest shaped by local issues such as housing, energy costs, and foreign policy. By-election turnout patterns and protest voting dynamics have narrowed the range of plausible Green shares, with recent ward results and demographic projections clustering around the low-to-mid 20s. Traders see limited separation until further campaigning clarifies whether Green support consolidates above 30 percent or fragments below 25 percent.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$213Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s candidacy in the October 8 by-election has lifted expectations for the party’s performance in Holborn and St Pancras after it placed second in several Camden wards during the May 2026 local elections. Labour’s selection of council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the absence of a high-profile independent challenger from 2024 create a contest shaped by local issues such as housing, energy costs, and foreign policy. By-election turnout patterns and protest voting dynamics have narrowed the range of plausible Green shares, with recent ward results and demographic projections clustering around the low-to-mid 20s. Traders see limited separation until further campaigning clarifies whether Green support consolidates above 30 percent or fragments below 25 percent.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s candidacy in the October 8 by-election has lifted expectations for the party’s performance in Holborn and St Pancras after it placed second in several Camden wards during the May 2026 local elections. Labour’s selection of council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the absence of a high-profile independent challenger from 2024 create a contest shaped by local issues such as housing, energy costs, and foreign policy. By-election turnout patterns and protest voting dynamics have narrowed the range of plausible Green shares, with recent ward results and demographic projections clustering around the low-to-mid 20s. Traders see limited separation until further campaigning clarifies whether Green support consolidates above 30 percent or fragments below 25 percent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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