The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation as MP in this long-held Labour seat, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s leadership amid a strong Green challenge. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as candidate, while the Greens chose leader Zack Polanski, bolstered by endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein and recent local election gains where the party reached 28.8% in the area. These factors, combined with the constituency’s progressive demographics and past voter shifts on issues like housing and foreign policy, keep Labour’s projected vote share tightly clustered around 35-40% in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events and turnout patterns among left-leaning voters could widen or narrow that range before polling day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update50%+ 20%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
30-35% 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
12%
30-35%
15%
35-40%
44%
40-45%
18%
45-50%
18%
50%+
20%
50%+ 20%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
30-35% 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$27 Vol.
12%
30-35%
$26 Vol.
15%
35-40%
$37 Vol.
44%
40-45%
$29 Vol.
18%
45-50%
$6 Vol.
18%
50%+
$88 Vol.
20%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation as MP in this long-held Labour seat, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s leadership amid a strong Green challenge. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as candidate, while the Greens chose leader Zack Polanski, bolstered by endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein and recent local election gains where the party reached 28.8% in the area. These factors, combined with the constituency’s progressive demographics and past voter shifts on issues like housing and foreign policy, keep Labour’s projected vote share tightly clustered around 35-40% in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events and turnout patterns among left-leaning voters could widen or narrow that range before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$213Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation as MP in this long-held Labour seat, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s leadership amid a strong Green challenge. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as candidate, while the Greens chose leader Zack Polanski, bolstered by endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein and recent local election gains where the party reached 28.8% in the area. These factors, combined with the constituency’s progressive demographics and past voter shifts on issues like housing and foreign policy, keep Labour’s projected vote share tightly clustered around 35-40% in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events and turnout patterns among left-leaning voters could widen or narrow that range before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 8, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation as MP in this long-held Labour seat, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s leadership amid a strong Green challenge. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as candidate, while the Greens chose leader Zack Polanski, bolstered by endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein and recent local election gains where the party reached 28.8% in the area. These factors, combined with the constituency’s progressive demographics and past voter shifts on issues like housing and foreign policy, keep Labour’s projected vote share tightly clustered around 35-40% in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events and turnout patterns among left-leaning voters could widen or narrow that range before polling day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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