Mexico City’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters produces a large diurnal temperature range, with overnight radiative cooling often driving minimums well below daytime highs during the August rainy season. Current model consensus from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate points to a low near 13 °C (55–56 °F) on the 25th under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, consistent with the long-term August average of 11–13 °C. Trader pricing across the 11–17 °C bins reflects uncertainty in how much cloud cover and urban heat-island effects will suppress cooling versus any localized clear spells or stronger downslope winds that could allow brief drops toward single digits. The elevated 34.5 % on 9 °C or below likely captures tail-risk scenarios from forecast revisions or measurement-station variability, while the clustered mid-20 % probabilities on nearby values highlight the narrow historical envelope and limited upside for extremes this late in the wet season.