Official Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models indicate a minimum temperature near 26°C for Taipei on August 30, driven by high dew points near 25–26°C, persistent cloud cover from scattered showers, and minimal overnight radiative cooling typical of the subtropical monsoon regime. Recent low-pressure influences have sustained elevated humidity and limited clear-sky cooling periods, keeping trader-implied odds clustered across 24–28°C outcomes. Key variables differentiating these closely matched probabilities include the precise timing and intensity of any convective activity, urban heat-island effects, and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture. Updated CWA guidance and next model runs will likely refine the exact minimum ahead of resolution.