SpaceX is advancing toward the debut of its Starship V3 vehicle on the twelfth integrated flight test, now targeted for no earlier than May 19 with a launch window opening at 5:30 p.m. CT from a new pad at Starbase. This marks the first full-stack flight in nearly seven months and introduces major hardware upgrades, including an evolved Raptor engine design and structural changes aimed at enabling rapid reuse based on prior test data. Recent wet dress rehearsals and static fire campaigns have cleared key milestones for Booster 19 and Ship 39, though minor schedule adjustments from NOTAM updates reflect standard pre-flight coordination. Traders are monitoring weather, final FAA clearances, and any last-minute ground tests that could shift the window, as successful demonstration of the updated architecture would directly influence subsequent development timelines for orbital refueling and higher payload capacity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
$1,778,052 Vol.
May 22
74%
May 31
92%
June 30
96%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
76%
Successful splash down?
68%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
1%
$1,778,052 Vol.
May 22
74%
May 31
92%
June 30
96%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
76%
Successful splash down?
68%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
1%
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Binuksan ang Market: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX is advancing toward the debut of its Starship V3 vehicle on the twelfth integrated flight test, now targeted for no earlier than May 19 with a launch window opening at 5:30 p.m. CT from a new pad at Starbase. This marks the first full-stack flight in nearly seven months and introduces major hardware upgrades, including an evolved Raptor engine design and structural changes aimed at enabling rapid reuse based on prior test data. Recent wet dress rehearsals and static fire campaigns have cleared key milestones for Booster 19 and Ship 39, though minor schedule adjustments from NOTAM updates reflect standard pre-flight coordination. Traders are monitoring weather, final FAA clearances, and any last-minute ground tests that could shift the window, as successful demonstration of the updated architecture would directly influence subsequent development timelines for orbital refueling and higher payload capacity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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