The 80% implied probability that the United States will not federally charge Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel reflects the absence of any Department of Justice indictments or formal criminal proceedings targeting the sitting head of state. Recent U.S. actions have instead focused on preparing an indictment against former leader Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside expanded sanctions on Cuban officials and entities linked to human rights violations. These steps, including 2025 designations against Díaz-Canel himself, demonstrate policy pressure on the regime without extending to criminal charges against the current president. Jurisdictional hurdles for prosecuting foreign heads of government and the lack of DOJ signaling through mid-May 2026 have reinforced trader expectations that no such indictment will occur before the June 30, 2026 resolution date.