Geopolitical tensions stemming from U.S.-Israel military actions involving Iran have driven the primary surge in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the national average reaching $4.51 per gallon as of May 17, 2026, up sharply from $2.81 in January. Disruptions to crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery maintenance and seasonal inventory draws, have elevated benchmark crude costs and tightened fuel supply, pushing prices above $4.50 for the first time since 2022. Trader sentiment reflects these supply constraints against the backdrop of approaching peak summer driving demand around Memorial Day, while EIA projections for a 2026 annual average near $3.70 highlight the potential for mean reversion if tensions ease. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing risks from global oil balances and refinery utilization rates, with any de-escalation serving as the key near-term catalyst.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill gas hit __ by end of May?
Will gas hit __ by end of May?
$140,628 Vol.
May 31, 2026
↑ $5.00
14%
↑ $4.70
52%
↑ $4.60
63%
↓ $4.25
12%
↓ $4.20
9%
↓ $4.10
9%
↓ $4.00
5%
↓ $3.75
3%
↓ $3.50
2%
$140,628 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$21,620 Vol.
14%
↑ $4.70
$11,417 Vol.
52%
↑ $4.60
$11,673 Vol.
63%
↓ $4.25
$2,557 Vol.
12%
↓ $4.20
$1,868 Vol.
9%
↓ $4.10
$1,101 Vol.
9%
↓ $4.00
$884 Vol.
5%
↓ $3.75
$1,486 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.50
$6,945 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Geopolitical tensions stemming from U.S.-Israel military actions involving Iran have driven the primary surge in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the national average reaching $4.51 per gallon as of May 17, 2026, up sharply from $2.81 in January. Disruptions to crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery maintenance and seasonal inventory draws, have elevated benchmark crude costs and tightened fuel supply, pushing prices above $4.50 for the first time since 2022. Trader sentiment reflects these supply constraints against the backdrop of approaching peak summer driving demand around Memorial Day, while EIA projections for a 2026 annual average near $3.70 highlight the potential for mean reversion if tensions ease. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing risks from global oil balances and refinery utilization rates, with any de-escalation serving as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$140,628Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Geopolitical tensions stemming from U.S.-Israel military actions involving Iran have driven the primary surge in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the national average reaching $4.51 per gallon as of May 17, 2026, up sharply from $2.81 in January. Disruptions to crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery maintenance and seasonal inventory draws, have elevated benchmark crude costs and tightened fuel supply, pushing prices above $4.50 for the first time since 2022. Trader sentiment reflects these supply constraints against the backdrop of approaching peak summer driving demand around Memorial Day, while EIA projections for a 2026 annual average near $3.70 highlight the potential for mean reversion if tensions ease. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing risks from global oil balances and refinery utilization rates, with any de-escalation serving as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$140,628Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions stemming from U.S.-Israel military actions involving Iran have driven the primary surge in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the national average reaching $4.51 per gallon as of May 17, 2026, up sharply from $2.81 in January. Disruptions to crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery maintenance and seasonal inventory draws, have elevated benchmark crude costs and tightened fuel supply, pushing prices above $4.50 for the first time since 2022. Trader sentiment reflects these supply constraints against the backdrop of approaching peak summer driving demand around Memorial Day, while EIA projections for a 2026 annual average near $3.70 highlight the potential for mean reversion if tensions ease. Market-implied odds incorporate ongoing risks from global oil balances and refinery utilization rates, with any de-escalation serving as the key near-term catalyst.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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