**Ongoing antitrust litigation and a court-approved delay have pushed any potential closing well beyond 2026, driving the 75.5% market-implied probability on “No.”** Paramount Skydance signed the $110–111 billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026 with an original target of Q3 2026, after DOJ antitrust clearance in June. However, a coalition of 12 states led by California filed suit in mid-July alleging reduced competition in film distribution, cable networks, and streaming. A federal judge in California imposed a pause, leading Paramount to stipulate in late July that it would not close until five days after a trial ruling or June 1, 2027—whichever comes first. The trial is now scheduled for March 2027, with recent talks between Paramount and the California Attorney General’s office aimed at potential remedies. These developments—state-level legal challenges, the binding delay agreement, and a 2027 trial date—create substantial barriers to a 2026 close. Traders view the timeline slippage and litigation risk as decisive, especially given the ticking fees that begin after September 2026 and the uncertainty around judicial outcomes. While settlement talks or expedited approvals could theoretically accelerate resolution, the current posture strongly favors completion after year-end.