Current epidemiological surveillance shows no active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices, with the agency’s latest data indicating controlled transmission of known pathogens and no outbreaks meeting the strict threshold of extreme risk without available precautions. Measles cases total 1,842 so far in 2026 but remain largely vaccine-contained, while a recent hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship triggered only a Level 3 emergency activation—the lowest tier—with no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread. Respiratory virus activity, including COVID-19 and influenza, continues to decline across states per CDC modeling, and advisories for polio and chikungunya stay at Levels 2–3. Traders therefore assign 78% probability to no issuance by year-end, though weekly CDC updates could shift odds if a novel high-fatality pathogen emerges with rapid healthcare-system impact.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$71,397 Обс.
$71,397 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$71,397 Обс.
$71,397 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Current epidemiological surveillance shows no active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices, with the agency’s latest data indicating controlled transmission of known pathogens and no outbreaks meeting the strict threshold of extreme risk without available precautions. Measles cases total 1,842 so far in 2026 but remain largely vaccine-contained, while a recent hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship triggered only a Level 3 emergency activation—the lowest tier—with no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread. Respiratory virus activity, including COVID-19 and influenza, continues to decline across states per CDC modeling, and advisories for polio and chikungunya stay at Levels 2–3. Traders therefore assign 78% probability to no issuance by year-end, though weekly CDC updates could shift odds if a novel high-fatality pathogen emerges with rapid healthcare-system impact.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$71,397Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Current epidemiological surveillance shows no active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices, with the agency’s latest data indicating controlled transmission of known pathogens and no outbreaks meeting the strict threshold of extreme risk without available precautions. Measles cases total 1,842 so far in 2026 but remain largely vaccine-contained, while a recent hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship triggered only a Level 3 emergency activation—the lowest tier—with no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread. Respiratory virus activity, including COVID-19 and influenza, continues to decline across states per CDC modeling, and advisories for polio and chikungunya stay at Levels 2–3. Traders therefore assign 78% probability to no issuance by year-end, though weekly CDC updates could shift odds if a novel high-fatality pathogen emerges with rapid healthcare-system impact.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$71,397Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current epidemiological surveillance shows no active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices, with the agency’s latest data indicating controlled transmission of known pathogens and no outbreaks meeting the strict threshold of extreme risk without available precautions. Measles cases total 1,842 so far in 2026 but remain largely vaccine-contained, while a recent hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship triggered only a Level 3 emergency activation—the lowest tier—with no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread. Respiratory virus activity, including COVID-19 and influenza, continues to decline across states per CDC modeling, and advisories for polio and chikungunya stay at Levels 2–3. Traders therefore assign 78% probability to no issuance by year-end, though weekly CDC updates could shift odds if a novel high-fatality pathogen emerges with rapid healthcare-system impact.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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