The market-implied 77.5 percent probability against a CDC Level 4 travel health notice by December 31 reflects the absence of any active extreme-risk advisories as of mid-May and the limited scope of the recent hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise-ship travel. Official CDC surveillance shows current notices at Level 2 for poliovirus circulation in 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, with no sustained U.S. community transmission or novel pathogen emergence meeting the “avoid all travel” threshold. The hantavirus cluster prompted only a lowest-tier CDC emergency activation and targeted clinician alerts, consistent with historical patterns where Level 4 notices require uncontrolled epidemics exceeding existing epidemiological thresholds. Stable case counts and surveillance data through mid-May leave little room for rapid escalation before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$71,475 Обс.
$71,475 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$71,475 Обс.
$71,475 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The market-implied 77.5 percent probability against a CDC Level 4 travel health notice by December 31 reflects the absence of any active extreme-risk advisories as of mid-May and the limited scope of the recent hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise-ship travel. Official CDC surveillance shows current notices at Level 2 for poliovirus circulation in 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, with no sustained U.S. community transmission or novel pathogen emergence meeting the “avoid all travel” threshold. The hantavirus cluster prompted only a lowest-tier CDC emergency activation and targeted clinician alerts, consistent with historical patterns where Level 4 notices require uncontrolled epidemics exceeding existing epidemiological thresholds. Stable case counts and surveillance data through mid-May leave little room for rapid escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$71,475Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The market-implied 77.5 percent probability against a CDC Level 4 travel health notice by December 31 reflects the absence of any active extreme-risk advisories as of mid-May and the limited scope of the recent hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise-ship travel. Official CDC surveillance shows current notices at Level 2 for poliovirus circulation in 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, with no sustained U.S. community transmission or novel pathogen emergence meeting the “avoid all travel” threshold. The hantavirus cluster prompted only a lowest-tier CDC emergency activation and targeted clinician alerts, consistent with historical patterns where Level 4 notices require uncontrolled epidemics exceeding existing epidemiological thresholds. Stable case counts and surveillance data through mid-May leave little room for rapid escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$71,475Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 77.5 percent probability against a CDC Level 4 travel health notice by December 31 reflects the absence of any active extreme-risk advisories as of mid-May and the limited scope of the recent hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise-ship travel. Official CDC surveillance shows current notices at Level 2 for poliovirus circulation in 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, with no sustained U.S. community transmission or novel pathogen emergence meeting the “avoid all travel” threshold. The hantavirus cluster prompted only a lowest-tier CDC emergency activation and targeted clinician alerts, consistent with historical patterns where Level 4 notices require uncontrolled epidemics exceeding existing epidemiological thresholds. Stable case counts and surveillance data through mid-May leave little room for rapid escalation before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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