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icon for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

icon for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% шанс
Polymarket

$71,968 Обс.

11% шанс
Polymarket

$71,968 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$71,968
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$71,968
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 11% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 11¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 11%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?» згенерував $72K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 19, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?» — 11% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 11% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.