Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in trader consensus because it is the sole open Democratic-held Senate seat in a presidential battleground state with an even partisan voting index, requiring Democrats to defend it while pursuing flips elsewhere to regain chamber control. Recent polling after the August 4 primary shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in a close contest with Republican Mike Rogers, keeping the race rated a toss-up by major forecasters. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s strong primary performance and polling edge against incumbent Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, while Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a state that leaned Democratic in 2024. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa feature established challengers like Sherrod Brown but start from deeper Republican baselines, limiting their relative positioning among toss-ups.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 52%
Maine 26%
Alaska 24%
Iowa 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
52%
Maine
26%
Alaska
24%
Iowa
17%
Ohio
15%
Texas
16%
Michigan 52%
Maine 26%
Alaska 24%
Iowa 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$56 Обс.
52%
Maine
$39 Обс.
26%
Alaska
$119 Обс.
24%
Iowa
$39 Обс.
17%
Ohio
$38 Обс.
15%
Texas
$39 Обс.
16%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in trader consensus because it is the sole open Democratic-held Senate seat in a presidential battleground state with an even partisan voting index, requiring Democrats to defend it while pursuing flips elsewhere to regain chamber control. Recent polling after the August 4 primary shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in a close contest with Republican Mike Rogers, keeping the race rated a toss-up by major forecasters. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s strong primary performance and polling edge against incumbent Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, while Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a state that leaned Democratic in 2024. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa feature established challengers like Sherrod Brown but start from deeper Republican baselines, limiting their relative positioning among toss-ups.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$330Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in trader consensus because it is the sole open Democratic-held Senate seat in a presidential battleground state with an even partisan voting index, requiring Democrats to defend it while pursuing flips elsewhere to regain chamber control. Recent polling after the August 4 primary shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in a close contest with Republican Mike Rogers, keeping the race rated a toss-up by major forecasters. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s strong primary performance and polling edge against incumbent Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, while Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a state that leaned Democratic in 2024. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa feature established challengers like Sherrod Brown but start from deeper Republican baselines, limiting their relative positioning among toss-ups.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$330Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in trader consensus because it is the sole open Democratic-held Senate seat in a presidential battleground state with an even partisan voting index, requiring Democrats to defend it while pursuing flips elsewhere to regain chamber control. Recent polling after the August 4 primary shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in a close contest with Republican Mike Rogers, keeping the race rated a toss-up by major forecasters. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s strong primary performance and polling edge against incumbent Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, while Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson in a state that leaned Democratic in 2024. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa feature established challengers like Sherrod Brown but start from deeper Republican baselines, limiting their relative positioning among toss-ups.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання