Divided congressional control after the 2026 midterms has created tight trader consensus around one or two government shutdowns by December 2027, as appropriations deadlines and continuing resolution expirations frequently test partisan majorities. Disagreements over spending levels, policy riders, and agency funding often force short-term extensions that lapse without agreement, producing brief impasses while avoiding prolonged closures. Recent leadership statements emphasize negotiations on omnibus packages and debt ceiling measures, yet historical base rates of funding fights during divided government support elevated probabilities for multiple events. Successful passage of full-year appropriations or bipartisan budget deals could lower the count, whereas prolonged disputes over defense or domestic priorities might push outcomes higher.