Troy Jackson defeated incumbent Susan Collins by roughly 6.6 points in the November 3, 2026, Maine U.S. Senate election conducted under ranked-choice voting. Vote tallies reported since election night, including county updates through November 5, have stabilized the margin in the 3-6 point range, driving trader consensus toward that bracket at high implied probability. Jackson, who entered the race in July after the Democratic primary winner withdrew, ran a focused campaign highlighting working-class concerns, affordability challenges such as heating oil costs, and Collins’ alignment with President Trump on key votes. Collins, seeking a sixth term, emphasized her Senate influence and record of delivering federal resources, but faced headwinds in a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. These results and the absence of major outstanding precincts or recounts anchor current pricing on the narrow Jackson victory range.