Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоElon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?
$79,784 Обс.
$79,784 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$79,784 Обс.
$79,784 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$79,784Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$79,784Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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