Traders assign a 60% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve's July-through-October meetings, reflecting the market's assessment that incoming data continue to support holding the federal funds rate steady. Recent inflation trajectories and labor market readings have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current policy stance rather than initiate cuts, consistent with the low single-digit odds on sequences that include any easing. With the next policy decision in September, participants are focused on the upcoming CPI release and employment report for signals on whether the inflation path and growth momentum remain aligned with unchanged rates. The 39% probability on "Other" outcomes underscores ongoing uncertainty around the timing of any potential shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Обс.
$711,907 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Обс.
$711,907 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$235,909 Обс.
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Обс.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Обс.
<1%
Other
$310,868 Обс.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 60% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve's July-through-October meetings, reflecting the market's assessment that incoming data continue to support holding the federal funds rate steady. Recent inflation trajectories and labor market readings have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current policy stance rather than initiate cuts, consistent with the low single-digit odds on sequences that include any easing. With the next policy decision in September, participants are focused on the upcoming CPI release and employment report for signals on whether the inflation path and growth momentum remain aligned with unchanged rates. The 39% probability on "Other" outcomes underscores ongoing uncertainty around the timing of any potential shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$711,907Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 60% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve's July-through-October meetings, reflecting the market's assessment that incoming data continue to support holding the federal funds rate steady. Recent inflation trajectories and labor market readings have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current policy stance rather than initiate cuts, consistent with the low single-digit odds on sequences that include any easing. With the next policy decision in September, participants are focused on the upcoming CPI release and employment report for signals on whether the inflation path and growth momentum remain aligned with unchanged rates. The 39% probability on "Other" outcomes underscores ongoing uncertainty around the timing of any potential shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$711,907Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 60% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve's July-through-October meetings, reflecting the market's assessment that incoming data continue to support holding the federal funds rate steady. Recent inflation trajectories and labor market readings have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current policy stance rather than initiate cuts, consistent with the low single-digit odds on sequences that include any easing. With the next policy decision in September, participants are focused on the upcoming CPI release and employment report for signals on whether the inflation path and growth momentum remain aligned with unchanged rates. The 39% probability on "Other" outcomes underscores ongoing uncertainty around the timing of any potential shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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