Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on July 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 14?
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 12%
НОВЕ
$13,348 Обс.
НОВЕ
$13,348 Обс.
Jul 14, 2026
77°F or below
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 12%
НОВЕ
$13,348 Обс.
НОВЕ
$13,348 Обс.
Jul 14, 2026
77°F or below
$716 Обс.
2%
78-79°F
$1,506 Обс.
12%
80-81°F
$920 Обс.
28%
82-83°F
$663 Обс.
36%
84-85°F
$1,128 Обс.
21%
86-87°F
$1,470 Обс.
4%
88-89°F
$1,100 Обс.
2%
90-91°F
$1,023 Обс.
1%
92-93°F
$1,912 Обс.
<1%
94-95°F
$2,720 Обс.
<1%
96°F or higher
$259 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,348Дата завершення
Jul 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$13,348Дата завершення
Jul 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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