**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on June 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 30?
37°C 51%
36°C 35%
38°C 13%
35°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$15,421 Обс.
НОВЕ
$15,421 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
35%
37°C
51%
38°C
13%
39°C
2%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 51%
36°C 35%
38°C 13%
35°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$15,421 Обс.
НОВЕ
$15,421 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
31°C or below
$985 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$518 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$564 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$611 Обс.
1%
35°C
$940 Обс.
4%
36°C
$1,332 Обс.
35%
37°C
$7,969 Обс.
51%
38°C
$1,015 Обс.
13%
39°C
$808 Обс.
2%
40°C
$619 Обс.
<1%
41°C or higher
$544 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$15,421Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$15,421Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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