Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on July 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 3?
32°C 34%
33°C 34%
34°C 20%
37°C or higher 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 3, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
6%
32°C
34%
33°C
34%
34°C
20%
35°C
4%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
8%
32°C 34%
33°C 34%
34°C 20%
37°C or higher 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 3, 2026
27°C or below
$31 Обс.
1%
28°C
$27 Обс.
1%
29°C
$24 Обс.
1%
30°C
$80 Обс.
2%
31°C
$88 Обс.
6%
32°C
$266 Обс.
34%
33°C
$10 Обс.
34%
34°C
$0 Обс.
20%
35°C
$6 Обс.
4%
36°C
$21 Обс.
3%
37°C or higher
$66 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$620Дата завершення
Jul 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$620Дата завершення
Jul 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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