Recent short-range model guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS places Moscow’s July 13 maximum near 21–24 °C, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds centered on 22–24 °C. This range sits close to the city’s July climatological average high of roughly 23–24 °C, reflecting a transitional summer pattern where modest high-pressure influence competes with lingering moisture and possible light showers that limit daytime heating. Key differentiating factors include the degree of cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture advection from the northwest, and the exact timing of any frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Forecast uncertainty remains elevated two days out, with successive model runs likely to refine the outcome ahead of resolution.