Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on August 21?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?
23°C 52%
24°C 26%
22°C 14%
25°C 6%
НОВЕ
$11,574 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,574 Обс.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
14%
23°C
52%
24°C
26%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 52%
24°C 26%
22°C 14%
25°C 6%
НОВЕ
$11,574 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,574 Обс.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
$901 Обс.
2%
21°C
$573 Обс.
4%
22°C
$638 Обс.
14%
23°C
$3,838 Обс.
52%
24°C
$1,152 Обс.
26%
25°C
$492 Обс.
6%
26°C
$606 Обс.
2%
27°C
$398 Обс.
1%
28°C
$445 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$1,268 Обс.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,263 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,574Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,574Дата завершення
Aug 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання