Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on July 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?
15°C 61%
16°C 32%
14°C 4.9%
17°C 1.9%
НОВЕ
$14,044 Обс.
НОВЕ
$14,044 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
61%
16°C
32%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 61%
16°C 32%
14°C 4.9%
17°C 1.9%
НОВЕ
$14,044 Обс.
НОВЕ
$14,044 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
10°C or below
$578 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$658 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$678 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$1,194 Обс.
1%
14°C
$1,994 Обс.
5%
15°C
$4,293 Обс.
61%
16°C
$2,125 Обс.
32%
17°C
$903 Обс.
2%
18°C
$1,013 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$386 Обс.
<1%
20°C or higher
$753 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,044Дата завершення
Jul 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$14,044Дата завершення
Jul 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecasts from MetService and international models currently project a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on July 15, supported by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a frontal system. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 15°C (46.5%) and 16°C (31%), above the typical July average high near 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May–July 2026 indicates temperatures are most likely near or below average across the region, yet the specific synoptic pattern for mid-month is producing the observed mild signal. Key variables include wind direction shifts, cloud cover, and any late intensification of the approaching front, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact peak before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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