Brazil’s Supreme Court has upheld Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence for orchestrating a coup plot, with the First Turma recently rejecting a habeas corpus appeal 3-0. The former president remains under house arrest on medical grounds, while a broader review of his conviction has been deferred until after the October 25 presidential runoff. His son Flávio’s potential victory would allow a pardon only after inauguration in 2027, and any congressional amnesty faces procedural and judicial hurdles. These confirmed institutional actions and timelines underpin traders’ 61.5% probability that full release from custody will not occur by March 31, 2027.