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icon for Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

icon for Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

17% шанс
Polymarket

$87,593 Обс.

17% шанс
Polymarket

$87,593 Обс.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the current procedural impasse.** Moraes, appointed in 2017, holds tenure until mandatory retirement at 75. Removal requires Senate impeachment proceedings, a threshold that has rarely succeeded against STF justices. Recent revelations in the Banco Master fraud investigation—including a large contract between the justice’s wife’s firm and the bank plus intercepted messages—prompted dozens of impeachment petitions, media editorials urging resignation or Senate action, and public calls from opposition figures. However, the STF’s internal handling has slowed momentum. Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigned Moraes from the “fake news” inquiry and the full court’s September 15 session ended in deadlock and a “vista” request, postponing any decision on opening a probe for up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. With the next Senate composition potentially decisive for any impeachment vote and Lula-aligned justices holding influence, the combination of procedural delays, political alignments, and constitutional protections supports the strong market consensus against removal in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$87,593
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the current procedural impasse.** Moraes, appointed in 2017, holds tenure until mandatory retirement at 75. Removal requires Senate impeachment proceedings, a threshold that has rarely succeeded against STF justices. Recent revelations in the Banco Master fraud investigation—including a large contract between the justice’s wife’s firm and the bank plus intercepted messages—prompted dozens of impeachment petitions, media editorials urging resignation or Senate action, and public calls from opposition figures. However, the STF’s internal handling has slowed momentum. Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigned Moraes from the “fake news” inquiry and the full court’s September 15 session ended in deadlock and a “vista” request, postponing any decision on opening a probe for up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. With the next Senate composition potentially decisive for any impeachment vote and Lula-aligned justices holding influence, the combination of procedural delays, political alignments, and constitutional protections supports the strong market consensus against removal in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$87,593
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 17% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 17¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 17%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?» згенерував $87.6K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 9, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?» — 17% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 17% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.