**Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the current procedural impasse.** Moraes, appointed in 2017, holds tenure until mandatory retirement at 75. Removal requires Senate impeachment proceedings, a threshold that has rarely succeeded against STF justices. Recent revelations in the Banco Master fraud investigation—including a large contract between the justice’s wife’s firm and the bank plus intercepted messages—prompted dozens of impeachment petitions, media editorials urging resignation or Senate action, and public calls from opposition figures. However, the STF’s internal handling has slowed momentum. Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigned Moraes from the “fake news” inquiry and the full court’s September 15 session ended in deadlock and a “vista” request, postponing any decision on opening a probe for up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. With the next Senate composition potentially decisive for any impeachment vote and Lula-aligned justices holding influence, the combination of procedural delays, political alignments, and constitutional protections supports the strong market consensus against removal in the near term.