**Recent revelations from a Federal Police report in the Banco Master case, including alleged messages between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro plus a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s firm, triggered media editorials and over 55 impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate.** These prompted internal STF clashes, with Justice André Mendonça releasing related materials and Moraes counter-petitioning for an investigation into Mendonça. On September 15, the STF postponed any decision on opening a probe after Justice Flávio Dino requested up to 90 days for review, likely pushing matters past the October presidential election. Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81), Senate president agenda control, and has never occurred in the modern era; current tallies show insufficient committed support. Traders therefore assign an 82% implied probability that Moraes remains on the court through year-end, reflecting these procedural and political barriers.