The closely matched 46% implied probabilities for a minimum of 49°F or below versus 68°F or higher on September 14 stem primarily from divergent short-range forecast model runs showing variable timing of a potential cold front versus continued warm advection over the Midwest. National Weather Service and NOAA guidance highlight uncertainty in jet stream positioning and high-pressure ridge strength, which can shift Chicago’s overnight lows by 10–15°F depending on cloud cover and Lake Michigan moderation. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 58–62°F, but recent model ensembles reveal spread around these bins, with new 00Z and 12Z runs expected to narrow the range before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest observational data and ensemble consensus to resolve this bimodal outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
49°F or below 92%
68°F or higher 91%
52-53°F 40%
50-51°F 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
92%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
40%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68°F or higher
91%
49°F or below 92%
68°F or higher 91%
52-53°F 40%
50-51°F 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Обс.
92%
50-51°F
$0 Обс.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
40%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
25%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
25%
58-59°F
$0 Обс.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
39%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
39%
68°F or higher
$0 Обс.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 46% implied probabilities for a minimum of 49°F or below versus 68°F or higher on September 14 stem primarily from divergent short-range forecast model runs showing variable timing of a potential cold front versus continued warm advection over the Midwest. National Weather Service and NOAA guidance highlight uncertainty in jet stream positioning and high-pressure ridge strength, which can shift Chicago’s overnight lows by 10–15°F depending on cloud cover and Lake Michigan moderation. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 58–62°F, but recent model ensembles reveal spread around these bins, with new 00Z and 12Z runs expected to narrow the range before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest observational data and ensemble consensus to resolve this bimodal outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 46% implied probabilities for a minimum of 49°F or below versus 68°F or higher on September 14 stem primarily from divergent short-range forecast model runs showing variable timing of a potential cold front versus continued warm advection over the Midwest. National Weather Service and NOAA guidance highlight uncertainty in jet stream positioning and high-pressure ridge strength, which can shift Chicago’s overnight lows by 10–15°F depending on cloud cover and Lake Michigan moderation. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 58–62°F, but recent model ensembles reveal spread around these bins, with new 00Z and 12Z runs expected to narrow the range before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest observational data and ensemble consensus to resolve this bimodal outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 46% implied probabilities for a minimum of 49°F or below versus 68°F or higher on September 14 stem primarily from divergent short-range forecast model runs showing variable timing of a potential cold front versus continued warm advection over the Midwest. National Weather Service and NOAA guidance highlight uncertainty in jet stream positioning and high-pressure ridge strength, which can shift Chicago’s overnight lows by 10–15°F depending on cloud cover and Lake Michigan moderation. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 58–62°F, but recent model ensembles reveal spread around these bins, with new 00Z and 12Z runs expected to narrow the range before resolution. Traders are weighting the latest observational data and ensemble consensus to resolve this bimodal outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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