Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
25°C 32%
24°C 25%
26°C 20%
23°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
25%
25°C
32%
26°C
20%
27°C
10%
28°C or higher
4%
25°C 32%
24°C 25%
26°C 20%
23°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
19°C
$0 Обс.
2%
20°C
$0 Обс.
3%
21°C
$124 Обс.
4%
22°C
$0 Обс.
5%
23°C
$24 Обс.
10%
24°C
$56 Обс.
25%
25°C
$20 Обс.
32%
26°C
$10 Обс.
20%
27°C
$20 Обс.
10%
28°C or higher
$0 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$252Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$252Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts indicate persistent cloud cover with scattered showers on September 12, driven by a lingering frontal boundary and northeasterly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler maritime air, keeping projected highs near 24–26 °C versus the 28 °C climatological norm. Model consensus shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any afternoon clearing, which directly separates the closely priced 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C outcomes; stronger or more prolonged stratiform clouds favor the lower end while earlier dissipation supports the upper. With resolution only 48 hours away, updated 00Z and 12Z model runs plus surface observations will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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