Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 21 overnight minimum near 13–15°C, with model spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, wind patterns, and any lingering frontal systems that could nudge readings slightly lower or higher. This tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around those thresholds captures the typical mid-summer baseline for the city, where radiative cooling under clear skies competes with urban heat retention and Atlantic air masses. Upcoming model runs and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen or shift the distribution before the market resolves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on July 21?
Lowest temperature in London on July 21?
15°C 70%
14°C 18%
16°C 13%
13°C 2.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 21, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
18%
15°C
70%
16°C
13%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 70%
14°C 18%
16°C 13%
13°C 2.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 21, 2026
10°C or below
$340 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$182 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$158 Обс.
1%
13°C
$293 Обс.
2%
14°C
$3,717 Обс.
18%
15°C
$2,072 Обс.
70%
16°C
$311 Обс.
13%
17°C
$230 Обс.
1%
18°C
$223 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$354 Обс.
<1%
20°C or higher
$465 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 21 overnight minimum near 13–15°C, with model spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, wind patterns, and any lingering frontal systems that could nudge readings slightly lower or higher. This tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around those thresholds captures the typical mid-summer baseline for the city, where radiative cooling under clear skies competes with urban heat retention and Atlantic air masses. Upcoming model runs and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen or shift the distribution before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,348Дата завершення
Jul 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 21 overnight minimum near 13–15°C, with model spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, wind patterns, and any lingering frontal systems that could nudge readings slightly lower or higher. This tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around those thresholds captures the typical mid-summer baseline for the city, where radiative cooling under clear skies competes with urban heat retention and Atlantic air masses. Upcoming model runs and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen or shift the distribution before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$8,348Дата завершення
Jul 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 21 overnight minimum near 13–15°C, with model spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover, wind patterns, and any lingering frontal systems that could nudge readings slightly lower or higher. This tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around those thresholds captures the typical mid-summer baseline for the city, where radiative cooling under clear skies competes with urban heat retention and Atlantic air masses. Upcoming model runs and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen or shift the distribution before the market resolves.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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