The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 features a high-stakes contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons stepping down to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to seek a parliamentary seat and potential party leadership role. Polling shows Burnham leading for first place on Labour’s ticket, while Reform UK’s local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon consistently places second amid voter frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national direction. This positioning underpins Kenyon’s dominant 78.5% implied probability for second place in the trader consensus, ahead of lower-profile options such as Rebecca Shepherd. Recent candidate debates and constituency focus groups have reinforced Reform’s role as the primary challenger in this former Labour stronghold, with limited evidence of other parties mounting a comparable threat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRobert Kenyon 79%
Andy Burnham 17.3%
Rebecca Shepherd 4.5%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$110,166 Обс.
$110,166 Обс.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
79%
Andy Burnham
17%
Rebecca Shepherd
4%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 79%
Andy Burnham 17.3%
Rebecca Shepherd 4.5%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$110,166 Обс.
$110,166 Обс.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
$5,293 Обс.
79%
Andy Burnham
$3,990 Обс.
17%
Rebecca Shepherd
$96,800 Обс.
4%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 Обс.
<1%
John Skipworth
$1,215 Обс.
<1%
Maria Deery
$788 Обс.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 Обс.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 features a high-stakes contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons stepping down to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to seek a parliamentary seat and potential party leadership role. Polling shows Burnham leading for first place on Labour’s ticket, while Reform UK’s local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon consistently places second amid voter frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national direction. This positioning underpins Kenyon’s dominant 78.5% implied probability for second place in the trader consensus, ahead of lower-profile options such as Rebecca Shepherd. Recent candidate debates and constituency focus groups have reinforced Reform’s role as the primary challenger in this former Labour stronghold, with limited evidence of other parties mounting a comparable threat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Обсяг
$110,166Дата завершення
Jun 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 features a high-stakes contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons stepping down to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to seek a parliamentary seat and potential party leadership role. Polling shows Burnham leading for first place on Labour’s ticket, while Reform UK’s local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon consistently places second amid voter frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national direction. This positioning underpins Kenyon’s dominant 78.5% implied probability for second place in the trader consensus, ahead of lower-profile options such as Rebecca Shepherd. Recent candidate debates and constituency focus groups have reinforced Reform’s role as the primary challenger in this former Labour stronghold, with limited evidence of other parties mounting a comparable threat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Обсяг
$110,166Дата завершення
Jun 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 features a high-stakes contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons stepping down to enable Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to seek a parliamentary seat and potential party leadership role. Polling shows Burnham leading for first place on Labour’s ticket, while Reform UK’s local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon consistently places second amid voter frustration over immigration, cost of living, and national direction. This positioning underpins Kenyon’s dominant 78.5% implied probability for second place in the trader consensus, ahead of lower-profile options such as Rebecca Shepherd. Recent candidate debates and constituency focus groups have reinforced Reform’s role as the primary challenger in this former Labour stronghold, with limited evidence of other parties mounting a comparable threat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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