Despite recent turmoil including Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation on May 14 citing lost confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, nearly 100 Labour MPs urging his departure, and the SNP pledging a no-confidence motion unless he quits first, traders price a 90% chance no such vote occurs by June 30. Labour's commanding parliamentary majority from the 2024 election—over 160 seats ahead—deters sufficient backbench rebellions needed alongside opposition parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP) to table or pass a motion, which requires a simple majority of 326 votes. Starmer has vowed not to resign post-local election losses, with a key cabinet meeting set for May 19 amid leadership speculation around figures like Andy Burnham, though structural math favors stability barring mass defections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$13,507 Обс.
$13,507 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$13,507 Обс.
$13,507 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite recent turmoil including Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation on May 14 citing lost confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, nearly 100 Labour MPs urging his departure, and the SNP pledging a no-confidence motion unless he quits first, traders price a 90% chance no such vote occurs by June 30. Labour's commanding parliamentary majority from the 2024 election—over 160 seats ahead—deters sufficient backbench rebellions needed alongside opposition parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP) to table or pass a motion, which requires a simple majority of 326 votes. Starmer has vowed not to resign post-local election losses, with a key cabinet meeting set for May 19 amid leadership speculation around figures like Andy Burnham, though structural math favors stability barring mass defections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,507Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite recent turmoil including Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation on May 14 citing lost confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, nearly 100 Labour MPs urging his departure, and the SNP pledging a no-confidence motion unless he quits first, traders price a 90% chance no such vote occurs by June 30. Labour's commanding parliamentary majority from the 2024 election—over 160 seats ahead—deters sufficient backbench rebellions needed alongside opposition parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP) to table or pass a motion, which requires a simple majority of 326 votes. Starmer has vowed not to resign post-local election losses, with a key cabinet meeting set for May 19 amid leadership speculation around figures like Andy Burnham, though structural math favors stability barring mass defections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$13,507Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent turmoil including Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation on May 14 citing lost confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, nearly 100 Labour MPs urging his departure, and the SNP pledging a no-confidence motion unless he quits first, traders price a 90% chance no such vote occurs by June 30. Labour's commanding parliamentary majority from the 2024 election—over 160 seats ahead—deters sufficient backbench rebellions needed alongside opposition parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP) to table or pass a motion, which requires a simple majority of 326 votes. Starmer has vowed not to resign post-local election losses, with a key cabinet meeting set for May 19 amid leadership speculation around figures like Andy Burnham, though structural math favors stability barring mass defections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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