**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено6% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,781Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,781Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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