Trump’s repeated pledges for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 proposal from late 2025 that never materialized and a September 2026 $5,000 “Trump dividend” offer conditioned on Republican midterm gains, have not produced enacted legislation or distributions. Tariff collections, projected at roughly $125–200 billion annually after refunds from Supreme Court rulings invalidating earlier duties, fall far short of the $1.25 trillion cost for universal adult payments. Administration officials have discussed executive or reconciliation options, yet prior similar initiatives stalled over congressional requirements, revenue gaps, and legal constraints. These factors underpin trader expectations that no qualifying tariff dividend will be established by the December 31, 2026 deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
7% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s repeated pledges for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 proposal from late 2025 that never materialized and a September 2026 $5,000 “Trump dividend” offer conditioned on Republican midterm gains, have not produced enacted legislation or distributions. Tariff collections, projected at roughly $125–200 billion annually after refunds from Supreme Court rulings invalidating earlier duties, fall far short of the $1.25 trillion cost for universal adult payments. Administration officials have discussed executive or reconciliation options, yet prior similar initiatives stalled over congressional requirements, revenue gaps, and legal constraints. These factors underpin trader expectations that no qualifying tariff dividend will be established by the December 31, 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,796Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s repeated pledges for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 proposal from late 2025 that never materialized and a September 2026 $5,000 “Trump dividend” offer conditioned on Republican midterm gains, have not produced enacted legislation or distributions. Tariff collections, projected at roughly $125–200 billion annually after refunds from Supreme Court rulings invalidating earlier duties, fall far short of the $1.25 trillion cost for universal adult payments. Administration officials have discussed executive or reconciliation options, yet prior similar initiatives stalled over congressional requirements, revenue gaps, and legal constraints. These factors underpin trader expectations that no qualifying tariff dividend will be established by the December 31, 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,796Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trump’s repeated pledges for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 proposal from late 2025 that never materialized and a September 2026 $5,000 “Trump dividend” offer conditioned on Republican midterm gains, have not produced enacted legislation or distributions. Tariff collections, projected at roughly $125–200 billion annually after refunds from Supreme Court rulings invalidating earlier duties, fall far short of the $1.25 trillion cost for universal adult payments. Administration officials have discussed executive or reconciliation options, yet prior similar initiatives stalled over congressional requirements, revenue gaps, and legal constraints. These factors underpin trader expectations that no qualifying tariff dividend will be established by the December 31, 2026 deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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