Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% implied probability for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting USGS monitoring of steady but unremarkable worldwide seismicity with no anomalous precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent event. A magnitude 7.7 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 briefly elevated local risk along the Japan Trench to about 1% for an M8+ in the following week per Japan Meteorological Agency models, but the advisory expired without escalation, and global catalogs show no M8+ events in 2026 to date. Historical data indicates M8+ quakes occur roughly once yearly via random fault ruptures, yet short-term probabilities remain low absent targeted warnings; watch USGS significant quake updates and subduction zone strain gauges for shifts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% implied probability for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting USGS monitoring of steady but unremarkable worldwide seismicity with no anomalous precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent event. A magnitude 7.7 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 briefly elevated local risk along the Japan Trench to about 1% for an M8+ in the following week per Japan Meteorological Agency models, but the advisory expired without escalation, and global catalogs show no M8+ events in 2026 to date. Historical data indicates M8+ quakes occur roughly once yearly via random fault ruptures, yet short-term probabilities remain low absent targeted warnings; watch USGS significant quake updates and subduction zone strain gauges for shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% implied probability for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting USGS monitoring of steady but unremarkable worldwide seismicity with no anomalous precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent event. A magnitude 7.7 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 briefly elevated local risk along the Japan Trench to about 1% for an M8+ in the following week per Japan Meteorological Agency models, but the advisory expired without escalation, and global catalogs show no M8+ events in 2026 to date. Historical data indicates M8+ quakes occur roughly once yearly via random fault ruptures, yet short-term probabilities remain low absent targeted warnings; watch USGS significant quake updates and subduction zone strain gauges for shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% implied probability for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher—by June 30, reflecting USGS monitoring of steady but unremarkable worldwide seismicity with no anomalous precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup signaling an imminent event. A magnitude 7.7 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 briefly elevated local risk along the Japan Trench to about 1% for an M8+ in the following week per Japan Meteorological Agency models, but the advisory expired without escalation, and global catalogs show no M8+ events in 2026 to date. Historical data indicates M8+ quakes occur roughly once yearly via random fault ruptures, yet short-term probabilities remain low absent targeted warnings; watch USGS significant quake updates and subduction zone strain gauges for shifts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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