Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS data—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such events (roughly one annually worldwide) and absence of verifiable precursors like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain accumulation on major fault systems. USGS significant earthquake catalogs show no M8+ activity in 2026 to date, with global seismicity at moderate levels; a M7.7 subduction zone event off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for potential escalation along the Japan Trench, but it expired without further escalation. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to complex tectonic dynamics, though traders anticipate steady monitoring via USGS updates through resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS data—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such events (roughly one annually worldwide) and absence of verifiable precursors like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain accumulation on major fault systems. USGS significant earthquake catalogs show no M8+ activity in 2026 to date, with global seismicity at moderate levels; a M7.7 subduction zone event off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for potential escalation along the Japan Trench, but it expired without further escalation. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to complex tectonic dynamics, though traders anticipate steady monitoring via USGS updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS data—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such events (roughly one annually worldwide) and absence of verifiable precursors like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain accumulation on major fault systems. USGS significant earthquake catalogs show no M8+ activity in 2026 to date, with global seismicity at moderate levels; a M7.7 subduction zone event off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for potential escalation along the Japan Trench, but it expired without further escalation. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to complex tectonic dynamics, though traders anticipate steady monitoring via USGS updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90% for a global megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS data—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such events (roughly one annually worldwide) and absence of verifiable precursors like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain accumulation on major fault systems. USGS significant earthquake catalogs show no M8+ activity in 2026 to date, with global seismicity at moderate levels; a M7.7 subduction zone event off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for potential escalation along the Japan Trench, but it expired without further escalation. Short-term forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to complex tectonic dynamics, though traders anticipate steady monitoring via USGS updates through resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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