Recent USGS monitoring shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.0 or higher anywhere on Earth since the market opened in late December 2025, with global activity limited to moderate events below magnitude 6.0 through mid-May. Megaquakes of this scale occur on average only once or twice per year worldwide, driven by rare stress accumulation along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. The remaining window to June 30 spans roughly six weeks, during which historical patterns and current seismic quietude make an M8+ event statistically improbable. Trader consensus at 92 percent for No reflects this baseline rarity, though a sudden rupture in an overdue segment like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still shift odds if foreshock sequences intensify in coming weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 Обс.
$66,081 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.0 or higher anywhere on Earth since the market opened in late December 2025, with global activity limited to moderate events below magnitude 6.0 through mid-May. Megaquakes of this scale occur on average only once or twice per year worldwide, driven by rare stress accumulation along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. The remaining window to June 30 spans roughly six weeks, during which historical patterns and current seismic quietude make an M8+ event statistically improbable. Trader consensus at 92 percent for No reflects this baseline rarity, though a sudden rupture in an overdue segment like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still shift odds if foreshock sequences intensify in coming weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.0 or higher anywhere on Earth since the market opened in late December 2025, with global activity limited to moderate events below magnitude 6.0 through mid-May. Megaquakes of this scale occur on average only once or twice per year worldwide, driven by rare stress accumulation along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. The remaining window to June 30 spans roughly six weeks, during which historical patterns and current seismic quietude make an M8+ event statistically improbable. Trader consensus at 92 percent for No reflects this baseline rarity, though a sudden rupture in an overdue segment like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still shift odds if foreshock sequences intensify in coming weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$66,081Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS monitoring shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.0 or higher anywhere on Earth since the market opened in late December 2025, with global activity limited to moderate events below magnitude 6.0 through mid-May. Megaquakes of this scale occur on average only once or twice per year worldwide, driven by rare stress accumulation along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. The remaining window to June 30 spans roughly six weeks, during which historical patterns and current seismic quietude make an M8+ event statistically improbable. Trader consensus at 92 percent for No reflects this baseline rarity, though a sudden rupture in an overdue segment like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still shift odds if foreshock sequences intensify in coming weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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