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Світ·Німеччина

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Світ·Німеччина

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
НОВЕ
icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$2,234 Обс.

54%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$275 Обс.

16%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$649 Обс.

13%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$476 Обс.

8%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$156 Обс.

5%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$200 Обс.

4%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$153 Обс.

4%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$340 Обс.

3%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$128 Обс.

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$120 Обс.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$146 Обс.

3%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$128 Обс.

2%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$145 Обс.

6%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results and national polling have intensified speculation over a possible CDU-internal chancellor swap before the next federal vote in 2029, yet the slight edge for no change before 2028 reflects the structural barriers to an early transition. Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered sharp losses in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the AfD reached 43.8 percent, while Merz’s approval ratings remain low and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20 serve as immediate tests. Eight CDU state premiers publicly backed Merz, and no senior figure has launched an open challenge, though Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder are most frequently cited as potential successors in internal discussions. A swap would require either voluntary resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence while preserving the current coalition, both of which remain uncertain amid warnings that personnel debates could further strengthen the AfD.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,149
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028
Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results and national polling have intensified speculation over a possible CDU-internal chancellor swap before the next federal vote in 2029, yet the slight edge for no change before 2028 reflects the structural barriers to an early transition. Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered sharp losses in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the AfD reached 43.8 percent, while Merz’s approval ratings remain low and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20 serve as immediate tests. Eight CDU state premiers publicly backed Merz, and no senior figure has launched an open challenge, though Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder are most frequently cited as potential successors in internal discussions. A swap would require either voluntary resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence while preserving the current coalition, both of which remain uncertain amid warnings that personnel debates could further strengthen the AfD.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,149
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028
Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 13 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «No Next Chancellor before 2028» з 54%, далі «Hendrik Wüst» з 16%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 15, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?», перегляньте 13 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?» — «No Next Chancellor before 2028» з 54%. Наступний — «Hendrik Wüst» з 16%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.