NY-14 remains a strongly Democratic district with a Cook PVI of D+19, where incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against limited opposition. Her Republican opponent, Diamant Hysenaj, advanced unopposed in his primary and enters the November 3 general election in a seat that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices treats the outcome between the two main candidates as closely balanced at 50 percent each, with equivalent pricing across Democrat margin buckets and Republican victory. This positioning likely stems from uncertainty over turnout in the Bronx and Queens portions of the district, potential national political headwinds, and the absence of recent polling that could clarify shifts in voter preferences. Developments such as shifts in local economic conditions, campaign spending patterns, or late-cycle endorsements could widen separation by influencing turnout among key voting blocs or altering the effective margin in this urban electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-14 House Election Margin of Victory
NY-14 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Republican Wins 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
37%
Democrat 60-65%
36%
Democrat 55-60%
37%
Democrat 50-55%
36%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 35-40%
37%
Democrat 25-35%
37%
Democrat 0-25%
37%
Republican Wins
37%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Republican Wins 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Обс.
36%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Обс.
36%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 25-35%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 0-25%
$0 Обс.
37%
Republican Wins
$0 Обс.
37%
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NY-14 remains a strongly Democratic district with a Cook PVI of D+19, where incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against limited opposition. Her Republican opponent, Diamant Hysenaj, advanced unopposed in his primary and enters the November 3 general election in a seat that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices treats the outcome between the two main candidates as closely balanced at 50 percent each, with equivalent pricing across Democrat margin buckets and Republican victory. This positioning likely stems from uncertainty over turnout in the Bronx and Queens portions of the district, potential national political headwinds, and the absence of recent polling that could clarify shifts in voter preferences. Developments such as shifts in local economic conditions, campaign spending patterns, or late-cycle endorsements could widen separation by influencing turnout among key voting blocs or altering the effective margin in this urban electorate.
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NY-14 remains a strongly Democratic district with a Cook PVI of D+19, where incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against limited opposition. Her Republican opponent, Diamant Hysenaj, advanced unopposed in his primary and enters the November 3 general election in a seat that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices treats the outcome between the two main candidates as closely balanced at 50 percent each, with equivalent pricing across Democrat margin buckets and Republican victory. This positioning likely stems from uncertainty over turnout in the Bronx and Queens portions of the district, potential national political headwinds, and the absence of recent polling that could clarify shifts in voter preferences. Developments such as shifts in local economic conditions, campaign spending patterns, or late-cycle endorsements could widen separation by influencing turnout among key voting blocs or altering the effective margin in this urban electorate.
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NY-14 remains a strongly Democratic district with a Cook PVI of D+19, where incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against limited opposition. Her Republican opponent, Diamant Hysenaj, advanced unopposed in his primary and enters the November 3 general election in a seat that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the current prices treats the outcome between the two main candidates as closely balanced at 50 percent each, with equivalent pricing across Democrat margin buckets and Republican victory. This positioning likely stems from uncertainty over turnout in the Bronx and Queens portions of the district, potential national political headwinds, and the absence of recent polling that could clarify shifts in voter preferences. Developments such as shifts in local economic conditions, campaign spending patterns, or late-cycle endorsements could widen separation by influencing turnout among key voting blocs or altering the effective margin in this urban electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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