Databricks leads trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability due to its rapid succession of funding rounds that have more than tripled its valuation since early 2025, most recently closing a $5 billion strategic round at $188–190 billion in July–August 2026 after earlier marks at $134 billion and $100 billion. Strong revenue growth past a $5.4 billion annualized run rate, combined with AI platform expansions in data analytics and machine learning infrastructure, has driven the momentum. ByteDance sits at 20.8% amid steadier but less explosive marks around $330–550 billion tied to TikTok Shop and overseas revenue. Lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Stripe reflect their already elevated valuations and comparatively slower recent step-ups in private rounds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDatabricks 77%
ByteDance 20.8%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
$14,192 Обс.
$14,192 Обс.
Sep 1, 2026
Databricks
77%
ByteDance
21%
Anthropic
1%
OpenAI
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks 77%
ByteDance 20.8%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
$14,192 Обс.
$14,192 Обс.
Sep 1, 2026
Databricks
$8,012 Обс.
77%
ByteDance
$2,005 Обс.
21%
Anthropic
$1,226 Обс.
1%
OpenAI
$1,602 Обс.
1%
Stripe
$1,348 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Databricks leads trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability due to its rapid succession of funding rounds that have more than tripled its valuation since early 2025, most recently closing a $5 billion strategic round at $188–190 billion in July–August 2026 after earlier marks at $134 billion and $100 billion. Strong revenue growth past a $5.4 billion annualized run rate, combined with AI platform expansions in data analytics and machine learning infrastructure, has driven the momentum. ByteDance sits at 20.8% amid steadier but less explosive marks around $330–550 billion tied to TikTok Shop and overseas revenue. Lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Stripe reflect their already elevated valuations and comparatively slower recent step-ups in private rounds.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,192Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Databricks leads trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability due to its rapid succession of funding rounds that have more than tripled its valuation since early 2025, most recently closing a $5 billion strategic round at $188–190 billion in July–August 2026 after earlier marks at $134 billion and $100 billion. Strong revenue growth past a $5.4 billion annualized run rate, combined with AI platform expansions in data analytics and machine learning infrastructure, has driven the momentum. ByteDance sits at 20.8% amid steadier but less explosive marks around $330–550 billion tied to TikTok Shop and overseas revenue. Lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Stripe reflect their already elevated valuations and comparatively slower recent step-ups in private rounds.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Обсяг
$14,192Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks leads trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability due to its rapid succession of funding rounds that have more than tripled its valuation since early 2025, most recently closing a $5 billion strategic round at $188–190 billion in July–August 2026 after earlier marks at $134 billion and $100 billion. Strong revenue growth past a $5.4 billion annualized run rate, combined with AI platform expansions in data analytics and machine learning infrastructure, has driven the momentum. ByteDance sits at 20.8% amid steadier but less explosive marks around $330–550 billion tied to TikTok Shop and overseas revenue. Lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Stripe reflect their already elevated valuations and comparatively slower recent step-ups in private rounds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання