Recent small bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in May, have been contained without contagion, supporting the 64% market-implied probability that no additional U.S. bank failure occurs by June 30. With only two failures year-to-date and both under $300 million in assets, the sector shows limited distress amid steady FDIC oversight and orderly deposit transfers. Broader indicators, including contained commercial real estate exposures and stable capital levels at larger institutions, reinforce trader consensus around low near-term risk. The brief window to resolution further anchors odds, though unexpected credit events could still shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in May, have been contained without contagion, supporting the 64% market-implied probability that no additional U.S. bank failure occurs by June 30. With only two failures year-to-date and both under $300 million in assets, the sector shows limited distress amid steady FDIC oversight and orderly deposit transfers. Broader indicators, including contained commercial real estate exposures and stable capital levels at larger institutions, reinforce trader consensus around low near-term risk. The brief window to resolution further anchors odds, though unexpected credit events could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,293Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in May, have been contained without contagion, supporting the 64% market-implied probability that no additional U.S. bank failure occurs by June 30. With only two failures year-to-date and both under $300 million in assets, the sector shows limited distress amid steady FDIC oversight and orderly deposit transfers. Broader indicators, including contained commercial real estate exposures and stable capital levels at larger institutions, reinforce trader consensus around low near-term risk. The brief window to resolution further anchors odds, though unexpected credit events could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Обсяг
$7,293Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in May, have been contained without contagion, supporting the 64% market-implied probability that no additional U.S. bank failure occurs by June 30. With only two failures year-to-date and both under $300 million in assets, the sector shows limited distress amid steady FDIC oversight and orderly deposit transfers. Broader indicators, including contained commercial real estate exposures and stable capital levels at larger institutions, reinforce trader consensus around low near-term risk. The brief window to resolution further anchors odds, though unexpected credit events could still shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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