Traders assign 97.3% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because formal accessions require completed bilateral normalization agreements, public signings, and U.S. mediation, none of which are underway with any eligible state. Kazakhstan formalized entry in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, yet subsequent U.S. and Israeli diplomatic efforts targeting Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and additional Central Asian nations have produced only exploratory talks without verified breakthroughs. Core obstacles include Saudi insistence on Palestinian statehood progress, ongoing regional military operations, and the absence of imminent summit or announcement timelines. With roughly two weeks remaining before the resolution date, the compressed window leaves negligible scope for the procedural steps needed to alter the outcome absent an unforeseen diplomatic surprise.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$53,711 Обс.
$53,711 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
3% шанс
$53,711 Обс.
$53,711 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign 97.3% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because formal accessions require completed bilateral normalization agreements, public signings, and U.S. mediation, none of which are underway with any eligible state. Kazakhstan formalized entry in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, yet subsequent U.S. and Israeli diplomatic efforts targeting Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and additional Central Asian nations have produced only exploratory talks without verified breakthroughs. Core obstacles include Saudi insistence on Palestinian statehood progress, ongoing regional military operations, and the absence of imminent summit or announcement timelines. With roughly two weeks remaining before the resolution date, the compressed window leaves negligible scope for the procedural steps needed to alter the outcome absent an unforeseen diplomatic surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$53,711Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign 97.3% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because formal accessions require completed bilateral normalization agreements, public signings, and U.S. mediation, none of which are underway with any eligible state. Kazakhstan formalized entry in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, yet subsequent U.S. and Israeli diplomatic efforts targeting Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and additional Central Asian nations have produced only exploratory talks without verified breakthroughs. Core obstacles include Saudi insistence on Palestinian statehood progress, ongoing regional military operations, and the absence of imminent summit or announcement timelines. With roughly two weeks remaining before the resolution date, the compressed window leaves negligible scope for the procedural steps needed to alter the outcome absent an unforeseen diplomatic surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$53,711Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign 97.3% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because formal accessions require completed bilateral normalization agreements, public signings, and U.S. mediation, none of which are underway with any eligible state. Kazakhstan formalized entry in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, yet subsequent U.S. and Israeli diplomatic efforts targeting Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and additional Central Asian nations have produced only exploratory talks without verified breakthroughs. Core obstacles include Saudi insistence on Palestinian statehood progress, ongoing regional military operations, and the absence of imminent summit or announcement timelines. With roughly two weeks remaining before the resolution date, the compressed window leaves negligible scope for the procedural steps needed to alter the outcome absent an unforeseen diplomatic surprise.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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